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Re: The Ages of Uncertainty and Human Nature

Recipient profile picture Ian Stewart
i
27 May
Dear Ian Stewart,
Firstly, I wanted to thank you for writing your book Do Dice Play God?. I enjoyed the tour you took readers on across the “Ages of Uncertainty”. We forget sometimes that quantum mechanics and chaos theory are relatively new discoveries. And that modern probability theory, econometrics, and actuarial studies are not that much older. I’d argue, however, that while our collective understanding of the nature of uncertainty has improved over the last two thousand years, most of us today continue to think about probability in the same way that our ancestors once did. Indeed, the number of people who believe in spirits, deities, and superstitions far outweigh those who understand quantum physics, chaos theory, and the complexity sciences. At my workplace, a number of colleagues pool their money together every month to buy lottery tickets in hopes of striking it rich. They devise all sorts of heuristics and patterned rules in the semi-belief that it will improve their odds, if ever so slightly. Now, they aren’t clueless folk. They’re of the college-degree-toting sort. But when it comes to the lottery, rational thinking appears to fall by the wayside. They “feel compelled to try something”, one tells me. Effort, sensible or not, confers hope and psychic utility. Similarly, one of my buddies will refuse to play poker, Monopoly, and other games of chance unless he gets to wear his lucky pair of socks. From what I can tell, these socks aren’t magical. But like an expensive pair of jeans, they seem to boost his confidence. He ends up making decisions with greater gusto and clarity. So in a weird roundabout way, his superstition makes sense (even if his original reasoning was nonsensical). Moreover, classical views of uncertainty continue to persist in big business and government. During my day job as a management consultant, an executive once asked me to forecast the market prices of various rare-earth commodities over the next five decades. I told him politely that if I could predict long range prices with high confidence, I would not be working for him. He did not appreciate my joke, and pointed to the economic models that other competitors were selling. This executive isn’t an isolated case, of course. I am often asked to develop “optimum” strategies knowing full well that “good enough” is all we can really hope to achieve in a fuzzy, uncertain world. People like certainty. I guess what I’m trying to say is that in some ways, modern society is not dissimilar to the old Ages of Uncertainty. Where chieftains looked to rain dancing shamans for good fortune, Fortune 500 executives today look for people with fancy suits, MBA degrees, and expensive economic models. They confuse uncertainty reduction with uncertainty transfer, and pay their fortune tellers and management consultants well for it. Now, I know the interplay between uncertainty and human nature wasn’t a big focus in your book, Ian. But I do wonder if any interesting anecdotes, observations, or reflections on this theme came to you during the writing process. I’d love to hear your thoughts. Warm regards, Tobias

Tobias Lim

Author profile picture Tobias Lim

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    Govandi Citizens #𝑺𝒂𝒗𝒆𝑮𝒐𝒗𝒂𝒏𝒅𝒊  on 28 October
    Responses: 0

    Dear Internet, Story of the residents fighting to shut down the biomedical waste treatment plant in Govandi. It was during the COVID-19 pandemic that I realised that I must join the fight for clean air. As biomedical waste increased tenfold at health facilities an...

    Please, can you tell us how to protect democracy?

    Tobias Lim on 7 November
    Responses: 0

    Dear Jennifer Dresden, [highlight=transparent]I am an ordinary citizen who is concerned about the future of democracy. You know better than I that the US midterm elections will be a bellwether for things to come.[/highlight] [highlight=transparent]You gave a fantastic int...

    Edit Buttons, Selfies and Life

    Tobias Lim on 8 November
    Responses: 0

    Dear Internet, [highlight=transparent]I have sometimes wished for an edit button on this platform. I even went as far as to send the founder of Collate a request for this very feature. I happen to be a clumsy perfectionist, you see. I have an uncanny knack for find...

    Joe biden have big wrong as economically because he distributed billions of dolars in the pandemic .

    Hamit Mumcu on 10 November
    Responses: 0

    Dear Biden, Joe biden have big wrong as economically because he distributed billions of dolars in the pandemic . This was bad thing for economic but that was good as social state . All world effected this progress. All stock markets had big acceleration as posi...

    Thickheaded Corporations

    Tobias Lim on 14 November
    Responses: 0

    Dear Internet, [highlight=transparent]A few months ago, a family-friend who we will call Valerie bought two tickets for herself and her friend for travel long overdue. They were excited to visit someplace exotic after extended lockdowns and closed international bor...

    An Addendum to Gelatinous Ignorance

    Tobias Lim on 14 November
    Responses: 0

    Dear Internet, [highlight=transparent]A few weeks ago, I wrote a short letter about the “[/highlight][color=rgb(17, 85, 204)][highlight=transparent][url=https://www.collate.org/closed_letter/dealing-with-our-gelatinous-ignorance/sender]gelatinous ignorance[/url][/h...

    Why are video games so violent?

    Tobias Lim on 15 November
    Responses: 0

    Dear Michael Kasumovic, [highlight=transparent]I came across an interesting article on [/highlight][color=rgb(17, 85, 204)][highlight=transparent][url=https://newsroom.unsw.edu.au/news/science-tech/why-do-we-play-violent-video-games#:~:text=Kasumovic%20says.,to%20satisfy%20...

    Love, Terror, and Brainwashing — How can we stop cult-like politics?

    Tobias Lim on 15 November
    Responses: 0

    Dear Alexandra Stein, [highlight=transparent]In light of recent political developments, I was looking for books and papers to better understand the nature of human organization and social structure. I found your research on cults especially illuminating. So t[/highlight]h...

    What are your plans for Cressbrook Dale?

    Christopher Crompton on 21 November
    Responses: 0

    Dear Rachel Elnaugh, I have been visiting the Peak District National Park for many years and regard Cressbrook Dale as one of its gems of natural beauty and biodiversity. The woodland and wildflowers through the seasons are a particular joy, and as National Park access l...

    A question about the mindful athlete

    Tobias Lim on 21 November
    Responses: 0

    Dear George Mumford, [highlight=transparent]I bought my second copy of The Mindful Athlete a few days ago. This time, I plan to give it to a friend as a Christmas gift. You see, this friend of mine is facing a series of setbacks and personal hardships. But I am hopeful t...

    Letters to Tarkovsky

    Tobias Lim on 4 December
    Responses: 0

    Dear Internet, When a nobody like myself writes in letter form to a public figure, there is only a small probability that she will see my words amidst the flood of mail and messages that she inevitably receives. Beyond that, there is an even smaller chance that she...

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